Kennedy Joins the Race!

Gerard Kennedy has entered the OLP leadership race! He made the announcement on this morning's t.v. news talk show circuit starting with channel CP24 in Torornto. Former OLP MPP heavy hitters Joe Cordiano and George Smitherman are working on his campaign. Kennedy criticized Bill 115 as unnecessary. He says he will recall the legislature after he is elected. He has stressed the need for the OLP to reconnect with Ontarians. It is"off kilter"with it's original goals. He is running as a progressive: http://m.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1286232--ontario-liberal-leadership-race-gerard-kennedy-promises-to-be-different-if-he-takes-grit-helm

Look who's laughing now. GK challenges the OLP status quo with his leadership bid.

Media Analysis

Watch Gerard Kennedy's "soft launch" news announcement on CP24 this morning: http://tsu3rdvp.blogspot.ca/2011/04/my-class-at-school.html

Here is his Youtube video:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqr9_S4LQNg&feature=youtu.be  

Kennedy's launch lacks the big punch of the other contenders, but by and large they have been quite awful anyway. Youtube and the morning t.v. talk show news reach more everyday folk too, who are the audience Kennedy is aiming for with his grassroots campaign. Notice the focus in both cases is on being somebody who believes that what he is doing is necessary for the common good and shows conviction. The delivery is very DIY and staccato. Still he is defining himself clearly aside from and in contrast to the other contenders with the big money and big name support. Only time will tell if it works. It's quite possibly a long shot at best. 

Commentary: 

Gerard Kennedy is a very popular, charismatic and recognizable former Ontario Liberal MPP and Education Minister who laid the framework for rebuilding our school system after 7 years of Tory tax cuts and very hostile teacher relations. He is well respected in Toronto for his work with the food banks. OECTA worked closely with Kennedy and had a very direct and open relationship with him. The same with Kathleen Wynne who most regretfully voted for the MOU and Bill 115. It will be interesting to see if OECTA Provincial will directly or indirectly support him, Wynne, or even God forbid Sandra Pupatello. Some think she was okay in the Education Minister portfolio also.

Kennedy is the first and so far only OLP leadership candidate who has openly and directly criticized prorogation and Bill 115. He is not popular at Queen's Park but has two former heavyweights in his corner. "Furious George" Smitherman is a real political pitbull. Joe Cordiano was Kennedy's main opponent in the 1996 OLP race. 

Kennedy is not associated with the recent OLP strategic and policy reversals. Before that our teachers had enjoyed and benefited from two very good Liberal terms in office working co-operatively for the common good of our education system. In his t.v. announcement Gerard noted that although he doesn't have the big resources of the other candidates he has beliefs. Should Kennedy win the OLP leadership race and the next provincial election, his victory will need to very much be a grassroots Liberal rebellion based upon principles that once again capture and engage the popular support the party has lost. 

Politically speaking, the OLP race is all or nothing for Gerard. His political future cannot suffer a third loss at running for party leader. He lost the last OLP leadership race to Dalton McGuinty, then the federal leadership race when he helped Stephane Dion get elected. PC leader Hudak will contrast very poorly against Gerard, and as a progressive he will be a formidable challenge for a resurgent NDP. For the other Liberals contenders and rank + file? Kennedy is the black sheep in the race. He is putting everything on the line and coming out of the gate openly fighting against the OLP status quo. That will not go over well at first but he might eventually be seen as the only way voters including many Ontario teachers will ever support the OLP again. It could also serve him well as opposition leader.

Why care? An NDP election win is still far from a given. NDP pundits will be ready to roll the dice no matter what. Teachers need to be much more careful. A Hudak win will be disastrous for us and the union movement in Ontario. If Kennedy can rescue anything from this OLP Liberal train wreck of a government, especially from the outside without the luggage and bad track record, he deserves a chance.

Meanwhile back in Ottawa: Justin Trudeau's federal campaign is based upon Obama's successful US leadership strategy of doing an end run around the party establishment. Justin and Gerard are good buddies. Gerard must be aware of his plans. Of course the Federal Liberal leadership race involves a lot more voters and is a lot less restricted in limiting who votes. Could Kennedy still successfully adapt parts of the straegy for his own campaign? Maybe. See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/team-trudeau-taking-a-page-out-of-obamas-playbook/article5187867/?ord=1352728081033

Justin + PET in 1986: Northern Magus lite? Can he measure up to expectations?

A Late May PDT Update!

As of last week OECTA was the last remaining teachers' association at the PDT (provincial discussion table). All the other teacher associations have walked out, making it seem quite likely that we will have a long hot summer settling teacher contracts by August 31. What are the current odds of possible teacher job action including work to rule or a strike during the 2012-13 school year? Consider it about 50 percent, if there isn't a break through soon. Of course the membership would have to vote on any job actions first, but with the government standing fast on its position, one wonders how many members are going to favour:

A 2 year pay and grid freeze?

A reduction of sick days from 20 to 6?

A loss of accumulated sick days and a retirement gratuity?

A provincial government plan to cut its contributions to our pension plan?

OECTA can be expected to walk away from the table after it has exhausted all reasonable chance of pursuing the negotiations successfully. One has to think that could be very soon.

There has been some speculation on a possible split within the Liberal cabinet on the PDT talks. With Premier McGuinty apparently lining himself up for a run at the federal Liberal party leadership race as the longest reigning Liberal leader in Canada, the Ontario Liberal Party could be also faced with a leadership race too. One scenario has former Education Minister and current Municipal Minister Kathleen Wynne not on the same page as current Education Minister Laurel Broten and Finance Minister Dwight Duncan with the PDT talks.

Provincial NDP leader Andrea Horwarth remains silent on the teacher PDT issue and word is that the recent party policy conference was hardly a labour love in. Andrea is now trying to move her party more to the political centre, with increased seats and a potentially unstable minority government situation.

Provincial Conservative leader Tim Hudak remains far out in the cold Ontario political wilderness with an even harder party line on public service cuts. With possible teacher job actions this fall one has to wonder if his position will not gain favour in the year ahead, although at present the Liberals seem to have out Tory'd the Tory's with their PDT position. It is certainly a big change for a party that has enjoyed huge teacher support in the last three provincial elections and has promoted itself as the education party.

As the saying goes "It isn't over until it's over" but right now the possibility of a settlement at the PDT and with our school board contract talks before August 31st looks quite bleak indeed!