Gerard Kennedy has entered the OLP leadership race! He made the announcement on this morning's t.v. news talk show circuit starting with channel CP24 in Torornto. Former OLP MPP heavy hitters Joe Cordiano and George Smitherman are working on his campaign. Kennedy criticized Bill 115 as unnecessary. He says he will recall the legislature after he is elected. He has stressed the need for the OLP to reconnect with Ontarians. It is"off kilter"with it's original goals. He is running as a progressive: http://m.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1286232--ontario-liberal-leadership-race-gerard-kennedy-promises-to-be-different-if-he-takes-grit-helm
Look who's laughing now. GK challenges the OLP status quo with his leadership bid.
Media Analysis
Watch Gerard Kennedy's "soft launch" news announcement on CP24 this morning: http://tsu3rdvp.blogspot.ca/2011/04/my-class-at-school.html
Here is his Youtube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqr9_S4LQNg&feature=youtu.be
Kennedy's launch lacks the big punch of the other contenders, but by and large they have been quite awful anyway. Youtube and the morning t.v. talk show news reach more everyday folk too, who are the audience Kennedy is aiming for with his grassroots campaign. Notice the focus in both cases is on being somebody who believes that what he is doing is necessary for the common good and shows conviction. The delivery is very DIY and staccato. Still he is defining himself clearly aside from and in contrast to the other contenders with the big money and big name support. Only time will tell if it works. It's quite possibly a long shot at best.
Commentary:
Gerard Kennedy is a very popular, charismatic and recognizable former Ontario Liberal MPP and Education Minister who laid the framework for rebuilding our school system after 7 years of Tory tax cuts and very hostile teacher relations. He is well respected in Toronto for his work with the food banks. OECTA worked closely with Kennedy and had a very direct and open relationship with him. The same with Kathleen Wynne who most regretfully voted for the MOU and Bill 115. It will be interesting to see if OECTA Provincial will directly or indirectly support him, Wynne, or even God forbid Sandra Pupatello. Some think she was okay in the Education Minister portfolio also.
Kennedy is the first and so far only OLP leadership candidate who has openly and directly criticized prorogation and Bill 115. He is not popular at Queen's Park but has two former heavyweights in his corner. "Furious George" Smitherman is a real political pitbull. Joe Cordiano was Kennedy's main opponent in the 1996 OLP race.
Kennedy is not associated with the recent OLP strategic and policy reversals. Before that our teachers had enjoyed and benefited from two very good Liberal terms in office working co-operatively for the common good of our education system. In his t.v. announcement Gerard noted that although he doesn't have the big resources of the other candidates he has beliefs. Should Kennedy win the OLP leadership race and the next provincial election, his victory will need to very much be a grassroots Liberal rebellion based upon principles that once again capture and engage the popular support the party has lost.
Politically speaking, the OLP race is all or nothing for Gerard. His political future cannot suffer a third loss at running for party leader. He lost the last OLP leadership race to Dalton McGuinty, then the federal leadership race when he helped Stephane Dion get elected. PC leader Hudak will contrast very poorly against Gerard, and as a progressive he will be a formidable challenge for a resurgent NDP. For the other Liberals contenders and rank + file? Kennedy is the black sheep in the race. He is putting everything on the line and coming out of the gate openly fighting against the OLP status quo. That will not go over well at first but he might eventually be seen as the only way voters including many Ontario teachers will ever support the OLP again. It could also serve him well as opposition leader.
Why care? An NDP election win is still far from a given. NDP pundits will be ready to roll the dice no matter what. Teachers need to be much more careful. A Hudak win will be disastrous for us and the union movement in Ontario. If Kennedy can rescue anything from this OLP Liberal train wreck of a government, especially from the outside without the luggage and bad track record, he deserves a chance.
Meanwhile back in Ottawa: Justin Trudeau's federal campaign is based upon Obama's successful US leadership strategy of doing an end run around the party establishment. Justin and Gerard are good buddies. Gerard must be aware of his plans. Of course the Federal Liberal leadership race involves a lot more voters and is a lot less restricted in limiting who votes. Could Kennedy still successfully adapt parts of the straegy for his own campaign? Maybe. See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/team-trudeau-taking-a-page-out-of-obamas-playbook/article5187867/?ord=1352728081033
Justin + PET in 1986: Northern Magus lite? Can he measure up to expectations?
