By Elections: NDP K-W Upset, Liberals Hold Vaughan!

Kitchener-Waterloo: NDP 39.8 /Con 31.8/ Lib 24.0 Vote %

Vaughan: Liberals 51.2/ Con 33.4/ NDP: 11.3 Vote %

For complete results check here: http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

K-W Record reports on NDP Catherine Fife's "historic win": http://www.therecord.com/news/article/794493--fife-roars-to-historic-ndp-win

K-W Record Editorial explains why "Libs didn't deserve majority": http://www.therecord.com/opinion/editorial/article/794509--liberals-didn-t-deserve-majority

Fife win a "positive change": http://www.therecord.com/news/local/article/794515--fife-win-a-positive-change

Foot soldiers won election for Fife: http://www.therecord.com/opinion/columns/article/794432--ndp-stalwarts-worked-hard-and-it-made-a-difference

Ex K-W MPP Liz Witmer breaks silence on stepping down: http://www.therecord.com/news/local/article/794316

A good Toronto Star overview of election day results, reactions and implications: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1252723--ndp-take-kitchener-waterloo-block-liberal-majority-as-government-holds-vaughan

Have the NDP become the new Liberals for voters looking for a party closer to the political centre? See: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1253194--walkom-kitchener-waterloo-byelection-sees-new-liberals-outpace-old-one

Star's Cohn reports on impact for party leaders: canada/politics/article/1252711--cohn-ndp-win-in-kitchener-waterloo-byelection-leaves-mcguinty-humbled-hudak-humiliated

Stars Queen's Park Bureau speculates on potential party members with knives drawn for Hudak and McGuinty. See: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1252881--hudak-blames-unions-for-tories-loss-in-kitchener-waterloo

Hudak blames loss on "public union bosses". Yawn. See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hudak-blames-tsunami-of-public-union-bosses-for-by-election-loss/article4526251/?cmpid=rss1

Walkom sees through Hudak's hypocritical "union bosses" rhetoric: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1253580--cohn-tim-2-0-needs-to-upgrade-tory-gaming-and-delete-union-scapegoating?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium

Sun's Christina Blizzard speculates Hudak in trouble over inability to unite party and win more seats from beleagured Libs: http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/06/byelection-losses-bring-hudaks-leadership-into-question

McGuinty vows won't back down on legislation or public service wage freeze: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-ndps-by-election-win-leaves-majority-outside-liberals-grasp/article4525568/

Steve Paikin's Agenda views Lib + Con fortunes in perspective of an underdog win, then weighs NDP victory as a possible new orange crush or a one off win. Recognizes teacher impact too. A good thoughtful read: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hudak-blames-tsunami-of-public-union-bosses-for-by-election-loss/article4526251/?cmpid=rss1

Democracy in action: a K-W voter speaks: http://www.therecord.com/opinion/letters/article/794739--political-process-works-beautifully

Commentary + Speculation: A First brush:

The McGuinty Liberal's ultimately created widespread public cynicism with an ill advised gamble to win a majority at Queen's Park by engineering an "education crisis". The McGuinty, Duncan, Broten, DuGood wing hoped they would win K-W with a surprise anti-union attack beginning this spring. Long seen by critics as a pro-teacher party, they attempted an about face beginning with the PDT talks this spring, through the OECTA MOU, to the Bill 115 legislation at Queens Park, in the lead up to today's by-election. Any hope to strip away a riding from Tim Hudak's hard right Conservatives by appealing to soft small "c" conservative right of centre voters with their tough guy stand evaporated quickly. Watch for a split in the Liberal cabinet to widen further, with this unsuccessful about face.

The McGuinty Liberal's did  not learn from the "Great Demise of the Harris Eve Conservatives" in 2003. Instead the MOE [Ministry of Education] took on teachers at their own peril. Ten years of a constructive, co-operative advance in teacher government relations was gambled and was all but lost, gone up in smoke. Was it really worth risking the teacher's strong Liberal support in hopes of winning the K-W seat for a legislative majority, and at best a very slight one at that?

An all ready rejuvenated NDP was left with an empty vacuum to the centre left in the traditional Ontario political spectrum. The win provides great traction for the Ontario NDP. Party leader Andrea Horwath is now on a roll with her increased momentum. The NDP used it's by-electioneering strength to deal the Liberals a very significant blow, with the teacher's support. A by-election is not a provincial campaign, but the NDP managed to increase the parties usually limited resources to maximum effect in the public eye. Well done.

It's bad news for Tim Hudak to lose a Conservative riding Liz Witmer held for over 20 years. He's also lost a popular red Tory Conservative, when she resigned, further pushing the party to the hard right political extreme. Centre right? Centre Left? Fine. Much further either way and a leader looses their grip on the mainstream Ontario voter pulse. Will Conservatives decide enough is enough and drop Tim? The political knifes are out! Watch this story carefully!

For me, any Conservative defeat is a victory for teachers! However, will the Liberal's now move further to the right or the left in courting Conservative or NDP support to maintain it's minority government at Queen's Park? A shift to the right is not good for teachers. Any future Liberal and NDP election split vote is also bad news for us. It could allow the Conservatives to return to power. An NDP government is still not a given, despite it's great success in K-W today. Whatever each party does over the coming months will now become very critical and significant.

So what happens next with Bill 115 in next Monday's legislative vote? It will be very interesting to see if anything changes! And the so called OECTA Road Map? Hmmmm....

In the meantime congratulations to the NDP and Catherine Fife. Tonight's victory is yours to savour!

NDP' Catherine Fife + Party Leader Andrea Horwath celebrate K-W By-election win Sept. 6th

MOE's PDT Deadline + OSSTF + ETFO's Response!

[New links added August 2nd. See below.]

Surely this blog's title must provide an all time record of sorts for acronyms! So far most of my recent PDT coverage has focused on our OECTA PDT deal, most recently with the Catholic Principals and Trustees
response. Today's will provide links and some discussion about the continuing hard line struggle of our colleagues at OSSTF and ETFO.

As you should know the Ontario MOE [Ministry of Education] has gone public with it's demands that the teacher unions reach PDT [Provincial Discussion Table] agreements before school resumes in September. Now it seems that the school boards must also reach contracts with the unions based upon the PDT terms by then, and not by December 31, as has been previously outlined in the Ministry perimeters.

The MOE's expressed concern now is that current contracts will simply "roll over" and continue at an unacceptable cost if new contracts are not reached by August 31, when they expire. They also are responding to upcoming ETFO and ETFO strike votes, claiming they will disrupt classes come September. The main focus of the MOE's accusations seems to be that the unions are not bargaining in good faith. OSSTF and ETFO are adamantly disputing the Ministry claims, and have since issued strong statements explaining why, the links for which are provided below;


Here's a link to the MOE's July 30 press announcement that there will be no "rollover" of existing contracts after August 31 when our current contracts ones expire. If PDT agreements are not reached by then, they will be legislated, seemingly as per the MOE's initial terms: http://news.ontario.ca/edu/en/2012/07/ontario-reaches-another-education-deal.html

Here''s an audio link to Education Minister Laurel Broten's CBC Q+A:
http://www.cbc.ca/ontariotoday/


Here's a good summary link for OSSTF [Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation] President Ken Coran's response to the announcement: http://www.osstf.on.ca/Default.aspx?DN=eeaf6754-ca4a-4a51-939b-5fce46ac9d8c

Also see: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/-1685734.htm

Here's another for ETFO [Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario] Sam Hammond's response; http://www.controlyourfuture.ca/

Here's Premier McGuinty's latest August 2nd claim he will recall the legislature this month before school starts if necessary: http://www.cp24.com/news/mcguinty-won-t-rule-out-recalling-legislature-this-month-to-impose-new-teachers-contracts-1.901469

Some further considerations:

Compare the TDSB [Toronto District School Board] trustee response with their Catholic counterparts as discussed in my last PDT blog. Alas, in our case, I still don't feel the love, there is just so much else at play. Here is the TDSB trustees response. To me it seems more positive towards the teacher unions in general: http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/video/217453

By the way, here is OSSTF President Coran's response to the article on the Catholic trustees in the Toronto Star: http://www.osstf.on.ca/Default.aspx?DN=eeaf6754-ca4a-4a51-939b-5fce46ac9d8c

Meanwhile back in Tim's sTory Land:

Here are "the facts" from Conservative Leader Tim Hudak's website showing how the Liberals are are actually giving a $7000 pay raise with the OECTA PDT Agreement, something he would never do, by golly, because it's going to drive the province to financial ruin. Read and weep at his stupidity. Then consider what he would do if the government falls and he is elected to reign in the unions, as promised. Sarcastic I know, but we HAVE been there before. See:
http://www.ontariopc.com/media/2012/08/OECTA-Technical-Backgrounder.pdf

UAW [United Auto Workers] square off with Hudak's Tory plans to "modernize Ontario's outdated labour laws" by "Modifying Rand" as a part of his "Path to Prosperity: Flexible Labour Markets" policy paper. OFL [Ontario Federation of Labour] President Sid Ryan responds: http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2012/07/27/43146/ 

And in other news:

Here's a popular opinion piece from the Kitchener Record that's making the cyber-rounds: http://www.therecord.com/mobile/opinion/article/771794--liberals-failure-puts-pressure-on-school-boards#.UBk9ZScbVp

Here's an unverified Twitter link for educators opposed to the MOE's PDT demands: 
Teachers Unite!@Teachers_Gather.

A salute to you our brothers and sisters at OSSTF and ETFO ! I haven't any special expertise on your affairs, and make no such claims. However I do know that many of our OECTA teachers are NOT happy with what's happened at our end. They want more info on what's still happening on the front lines. If this blog helps our other affiliate readers in any way also, while we are all off doing summer things, I am honoured.

Special thanks to the Twitter Tweets and TSU Rep Angela Tersigni's excellent local JCM [James Cardinal McGuigan CSS] member updates for many of these links while I have been away. Yes, I am back from Mexico after a full day mostly spent in airports before and after the relatively short flight. Yesterdays storm certainly seemed to create havoc at Toronto's Pearson Airport!

By the way Angie, how about a summer guest blog?!? :-)

I will return over the next few days to edit and add to this blog, but wanted to get these links to you asap.

Be sure you are "in the know" for when we go back to school in September!!! Stay tuned!

Photos From Eleven Years Of PAC!

Yup. I served on TSU PAC [Toronto Secondary Unit Political Advisory Committee] as chair or executive liaison for quite a spell. I remember my first meeting in September 2000. Only Rene Jansen and George Kolos from the TSU executive were there. I soon became chair by default and continued to work for the next three years in the lead up to the 2003 Ontario Provincial election. PAC eventually got an army of teachers together. We helped elect an education friendly Liberal government after about eight years of all out war between the teachers and the Mike Harris Tory [Conservative] government. I stuck with PAC throughout the 2007 election, and finally through the lead up to this fall.


PAC's come and PAC's go. I can only wish the next crew good luck and hope they carry on the very successful strategic support model we developed with OECTA Provincial. Bottom line is PAC's a lot more than just talking, planning and strategizing. It's really hard sticking with it, and even carrying out the work yourself if need be. Often you may find that it seems everybody always knows what everybody else should do but not everybody is willing to actually go do it themselves.

In politics there's never any shortage of hot air, such is the nature of the beast. Go figure. When things go well everyone loves the accolades. When it doesn't, well it's much easier just to complain, blame everybody else or disappear. Maybe that's just human nature.

I've always believed that PAC is about service. We shouldn't just be in it for ourselves or our own political causes. Anyhow, since I don't drink beer, liquor, wine or whatever everybody else was having on the political circuit, I can now joke that these problems have always just been so much water off my back. The members who were truly there to serve never got caught up in all that nonsense either. Thank God!


I had a great 11 years at it. I truly enjoyed myself. I have been truly honoured by meeting and working with so many great and dedicated people from OECTA, the other teacher affiliates, education and union groups. OECTA's "Consider the Cost", and "Who Speaks For Children?" campaigns were especially outstanding in serving our profession, our students and our schools. Kudos to Cheryl and Vic! Then there were the politicians who ranged from the holy to the profane. Well, more about them later!

It's a welcome relief that the PAC responsibilities are now off my shoulders, as much fun as it's all been. Politics will always be in my blood but now I can focus on some other new initiatives for our unit more so than politics, politics and more politics all the time. I am excited and looking forward to that.


As we move beyond Election 2011, I am taking this opportunity to share with you some of the photos I've snapped over the years. What a long strange trip it has been! I met a lot of pretty interesting people and have a lot of great stories to tell, that's for sure. I will write about more of what I learned for you like I did at the end of my last post, if you read that far, about the "political party's". I will post some more goodies from time to time; the tasty and useful things to know.


Long ago Janet suggested that I ask if we could take a photo with whomever I was meeting. Why not? What fun it turned out to be! Maybe a picture is worth a thousand words. You have to be a little ballsy, or maybe just crazy to go for it. But I did and the only person who ever said no was Tim Hudak. Janet got his picture with me anyways! Ha ha.


I am sharing some of these photos with you on the slide show at the top left of my blog screen. I will add ten new ones a day for the next bit. You can click on the photos to enlarge them and then also go see the earlier ones on my Flickr account. The photos were taken at various places and events. They don't imply that the cast of characters, both good and bad, agree with my own teacher and union news and views on this blogspot. Nor are the photos being officially or unofficially posted to endorse them on behalf of anybody, not even necessarily myself. If you will recall in my last post ["Thanksgiving Appendum, Compendium Etc"] I said that I've always felt that to politically advise, one needs to be able to meet and talk with just about anybody whether you like and agree with them or not. Here they all are. Please enjoy! I hope you have as much fun as I did. Wow!


PS: The only politico I never could bring myself to talk to was Premier Mike Harris, and that's because I heard if you did you'd turn into a pillar of salt! Maybe someday though, who knows? ;-)

        Me: "Tim! Tim! Give it up lad!" Tim: "No way!" :-)

Liberal Win! Some Election Notes

As of this morning the official counts in the Ontario Provincial Election are:


Liberals =53 seats with 37% of the popular vote!
Conservatives=37 seats with 35% of the popular vote!
NDP=17 seats with 23% of the popular vote!


The McGuinty Liberals are one vote shy of a majority! There will be recounts and these numbers could change a little this way or that, but in the end it won't matter much. The result is a minority government and this is not necessarily a bad thing. It is very typical in many parliamentary democracies. If all three main partys work together for the common good of Ontarians it can be very responsive, with an internal dynamic that can result in balanced decisions. It's no longer a case of any one party or group of interests mostly getting their way and making arbitrary decisions whether the rest of us like it or not. There is much more need for consensus building.


Majority governments are more stable and indecisive, that's true. But Ontario is election weary and the coffers of all three parties must be pretty bare. We are stuck with a minority government, like it or not, for some time I'd bet. Maybe a full term of four years? We'll see. If the parties are here to serve the people of Ontario like they say, they will need to work together. If it's about posturing, power grabs, internal party politics and dirty tricks we could end up with another federal minority government debacle like we've seen in Ottawa; just a lot of bickering, as opposed to a reasoned debate with give and take.


Perhaps an all or nothing government majority is not always best. A month ago we were looking at a Conservative landslide. The gloves would've been off pretty fast as Hudak came after the unions. Our collective rights are guaranteed by law. Still we might've had to fight him all the way up to the supreme court before we could overturn his plans for us. What did he/ does he have in mind? Remember, according to former Conservative Education Minister John Snobelen the only mistake the Harris Conservatives made was not going after the teacher's fast and hard enough. It's a message most likely not lost on Tim Hudak, who you recall sat on Harris' cabinet with Snobelen during the so called "Common Sense Revolution" So we have got a reprieve for now anyway, from four or more years of pure grief.


Now what if Mr. Hudak can quit the personal attacks on Mr. McGuinty and maybe even talk with us? It might be hoping for too much but we will see. He gained seats for the party, he will be around for awhile, but he was heading for a majority and decidedly lost. We will need to watch him carefully.


Andrea Horwath perhaps did best. She could now well yield a balance of power in shifting the Liberals to centre left on more issues. She can gain experience, work on her profile, and fine tune her party and skills in the new minority government at Queens Park. On social issues one wouldn't be too surprised if she and the Liberals can find a lot of common ground. Economically speaking though, can she and the NDP come up with more than the old socialist bromides and people's party promises to appeal to the middle mainstream vote, and provide a viable Liberal alternative which could actually govern? Will labour give her enough room or will they go for her throat at some point like here in Toronto with Mayor Miller during the garbage strike? Hello Rob Ford! I suspect Andrea will be the most interesting party leader to watch.


And what of Mr.Guinty? True he has pulled off a hat trick with three Liberal wins in a row. Still, he lost seats and faces the need for party renewal without a plethora of new talent to draw upon. Perhaps it would've been better if he had put off any decisions on the HST until after the election and/ or stepped down two years into the last term. Taken a hit for the party. How would the Liberal's have done with a fresh leadership face and some plausible deniability for whatever ails us in the province of Ontario? And what happens to his mid term retirement plans now? If you ask me, wife Terry McGuinty didn't look terribly pleased on stage with him during his victory speech last night.


Questions! Questions! Questions! The final numbers don't even add up quite yet. Well, this post is obviously a work in progress, as is our new Ontario provincial government. I will have to get back to you later dear readers. In the meantime I hear school bells ringing...........................

A Dead Heat: Who Will Win + How?

[Post-script: Of course McGuinty will say no coalition, to hint otherwise would say he lacks confidence that he can win. Also, if swing voters feel safe they might stay with the NDP on election day rather than seek safety under the Liberal Tent. The NDP is guarded about the possibility of a coalition too. Under either a Liberal or a Conservative government they hold the balance of power, coalition or not, so there's no need to show their cards just yet.]

Election day is Thursday Oct. 6 of this week. Both the Liberal and Conservatives seem tied in a dead heat, if we are to believe the polls. Neither the Federal or the Toronto Municipal election polling numbers have turned out to be very accurate over the last year or so. In short, election day may just come down to a crap shoot, a roll of the dice as to who will win, and what happens afterward. It's still any one's guess. Let's examine this further.


Vote percentages don't necessarily match the actual seat numbers that will result for each party at Queens Park. For some interesting projections on this see http://electionalmanac.com/ Their seat projections are based upon polls from over a week ago, and therefore don't take into account the televised leaders debate. Then again the recent polls don't seem to shown any decisive win though Andrea Horwath's personal popularity may continue to grow. McGuinty and Hudak remain in a dead heat with perhaps a small bump in the viewer polls resulting from McGuinty's better performance in the debate. Otherwise the polling numbers don't seem to have changed much. The election race remains a dead heat with the Liberals and Conservatives both polling around the 35% mark. According to Election Almanac's projections we are looking at at a very slim Liberal majority! How can this be? Don't forget Ontario's population isn't spread evenly across the province, so the polling numbers won't evenly express true voter intent in every riding.


Another issue with the polling numbers is the actual demographics of the support for each of the three main parties. The NDP under Andrea Howarth has broken through the party's 20% glass roof and by some estimates is continuing to grow. In the personal sense she has done best this election in projecting an alternative to the "men in suits" running for the other parties. She comes across as warm and personable and has kept the Jack Layton glow shining. Party and platform wise, the NDP hasn't done as well though in inspiring mainstream confidence that they are ready to govern. Most importantly of all the NDP'ers voter base is largely young adults who are often not prone to actually show up to vote.


The Conservatives at 35% are pretty much at or just a little above the number of party faithful. If they don't like the leader or policies they won't switch votes, they just won't vote at all. The Toronto Sun, the most venomous of their supporters, while still declaring Hudak the winner of the debate didn't try to portray his win as a slam dunk. Quite rare. Apparantly Hudak wasn't Conservative enough in stating what cuts would be made. Had he done some more union bashing this might have been more reassuring to them. He's not quite enough like Mike Harris. He didn't list a lot of far right promises openly and clearly enough for the liking of a large enough percentage of his core group I suspect. Then again, smelling possible victory Conservative voters might just figure damn the torpedoes and come out to vote for him anyways, something they were not prepared to do under Ernie Eves and even less so with John Tory as party leader.


Where does this leave the Liberals? Their core support is amongst the aging baby-boomers, a substantial slice of the demograph, and perhaps even more importantly the group that is most likely to come out to vote. Quite frankly anyone with half a brain knows Ontario is doing relatively well right now in the current economic crisis. It is the international situation which is most likely to determine how jobs, finances and the economy goes in Ontario. Any other bromide is snake oil at best. Dalton McGuinty has stressed his good managerial skills, and can come across as believable on this count if still not being all that warm and reassuring. But in uncertain times, the simple cures promised by the Conservatives or even the NDP might seem pretty easy to swallow by the populace at large. Do they believe that a quick fix with lower taxes will work or do they prefer someone who will be steady and able to manage? If one believes it is all Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals fault that we are in uncertain economic times that voter might still gamble on swallowing the Tory snake oil come voting day. The Conservatives and Liberal messaging has pretty much come down to these two themes. Dalton the lying tax man or Dalton as the good, steady manager.


Another cause of great concern for the Liberals is a split in votes between them and the increasingly popular NDP. The Conservative have and still could quite likely win some more ridings first pass the post even though the total popular vote for their party is less than the combined vote of the other two. Often, we have seen a last minute switch of voters crossing back to the Liberals fearing a Conservative win. But Andrea Horwath has done well. Sensing a balance of power might now exist in a new post Bob Rae NDP her support could be tempted to stay with the leftist party rather than jumping ship to the Liberals come election day.

Much of the party canvasing this year focused on primarily finding out the residents political preference, rather than in trying to win over new support. These lists will prove invaluable come election day in getting out the vote. Each party will need a huge army of folk walking door to door, making phone calls and driving people to the voting stations. I still maintain that whoever gets the most of their support out wins be they Liberal or Conservative. Either way if it could be a minority government for either side with the NDP able to start calling a lot of the shots, or even forming a coalition, though that would be an issue I'd rather address later in another blog. Of course a lot can still happen between now and election day.


OECTA continues to encourage it's strategic voting option. Support your Liberal or NDP incumbent, they are both education friendly. As a teacher you won't want to see the Tory's coming down the middle in a split vote, they are not. If you have to hold your nose then so be it. If you have to help your own party do so in another riding where they are the incumbent. You really won't like a Conservative triad at the Federal, Municipal and Provincial level hatcheting away at our social services safety net for the next four years with their ill conceived economic remedy of cut, cut, cut!

So then, let me give you my top guesses how the election will turn out, in descending order:

1] A slim Liberal majority
2] A Conservative minority
3] A Liberal/ NDP Coalition
4] The polling is way off again and we get a Conservative majority

PS: For another real interesting and often quite accurate election result website go to http://electionprediction.org/

What Conservative Election Debates?!?

With a big election issue, like tax cuts and the service cuts that will inevitably follow, it is wise to ask three things: Are they realistic? Are they practical? And are they measurable? Unfortunately, as we have seen in the Toronto mayoral race where Rob Ford promised to provide a balanced budget by "stopping the gravy train" it didn't make any sense whatsoever. Now Toronto is tens of millions of dollars in debt and facing severe service cuts. These could affect, daycare, libraries, policing, and snow removal. The list goes on and on.

Tim Hudak of the Ontario Conservatives is promising to "cut the excesses" to balance our provincial budget by simply "eliminating efficiencies". How credible is this? He has promised not to cut education or health care, which is 70% of the total spending.

How is he going to perform this incredible balancing act? Our teachers want to know. Wouldn't it make sense to talk to us, since we are actually in the classrooms providing our province's educational services? Duh.

Both the Liberals and the NDP are in constant dialogue with all the the teacher associations in Ontario. They have been since before 2003. Even when we disagree, as is inevitable, we still meet to talk, because it is our students and schools that are at stake in any decisions that are made. This did not happen with the Harris Conservative government from 1995-2003. Unfortunately it is not and has not been happening for the last two years or so since Tim Hudak became Conservative leader.

This is not fear mongering on behalf of our teachers. Do the math. His numbers do not add up. Most frightening of all, he refuses to even discuss what he plans to do or how he plans to do it, outside of the most glibberish of glittering generalities to be found in his so called "Changebook" platform.

OECTA has provided it's members with a frank update on the situation in it's September 29th "Speak For Children" update. You should receive an email copy from your staff rep, or local unit office, depending on how you forward these missives in your OECTA unit.

 A lot of our teachers, and indeed concerned parents and community members as well, are feeling very frustrated. The reality of the situation is that most of the Conservative candidates are even refusing to attend the local riding debates to answer any questions with the election less than a week away.

Wake up Ontario before it is too late! The well being of our excellent education system is at stake. Be prepared to take a big bite of the Tory apple should the Hudak Conservatives win next week's Ontario Provincial election! It's happened in 1995 to 2003, and now it could happen again. Get involved. Help out an education friendly candidate today. Call your local OECTA unit office for more information. It's still not too late to do your part!

Tuesday's Ontario Election Debate?

[Post script: Was I right or wrong? You decide. The t.v./ newspaper straw votes, analysis and focus will once again decide public opinion, at least for anyone who wasn't watching or have much grasp on politics or media, I fear. I'm surprised they aren't yet all over Hudak's "foreigners" remarks. I didn't think he'd start tossing that position around again. It's a pity if the public and the media don't catch this. Also if McGuinty and Horwath don't run with it and try score a post debate homerun at Hudak's expense.]

How will Tuesday's 6:30 pm Ontario Election Debate go? Will it make or break any of the three party leaders? Premier Dalton McGuinty of the Liberals? Opposition Leader Tim Hudak of the Conservatives? Andrea Horwath of the NDP? Here's my best guesstimate:

Tim Hudak is not known as a great public speaker or debater except perhaps when he is amongst the party faithful. Let's see if he can mellow the mad white guy act tonight. Andrea Horwath is quite personable and has a sunny disposition. It is to her long term advantage to make that impression well known if she is to continue to shine in Jack Layton's glow, if not in this election then in the years ahead. Dalton McGuinty enters the debate with an advantage, this is his fourth election campaign. Both Tim and Andrea are rookies, it's only their first. That's very important!

Dalton needs to come across as steady, confident, and managerial. Sparing any curve balls that catch him off base he should be safe. If he can strip off enough voters from the NDP, who might feel safer in the Liberal rather than the NDP tent should they fear a possible Conservative election win, he could hit a home run. It wouldn't be unprecedented but is by no means for certain. NDP voters could stay the course hoping for an NDP balance of power in a Liberal or Conservative minority government too. Expect Andrea and Tim to go at Dalton like there's no tomorrow! Dalton must come off as unruffled. It could just come down to a question of style.

The front covers of the Wednesday Toronto Sun and National Post will declare that Hudak won the debate, regardless of how it goes. The Sun will declare a landslide win for Tim. The t.v. ratings will not be high but one would hope they will beat the Law and Order SVU reruns come 7pm. Likewise election day voter turnout will still be headed for an all time low. So it goes in an election weary Ontario without any defining issues on the frontburner. Basically either the Liberals or the Conservatives will still be able to win, barring any unexpected knock out punches, simply depending upon who can get out the most voters on election day.

Some Notes On The Ontario Election Snoozefest

Getting bored with election news? Alas, having survived the Harris-Hudak years I would be remiss if I did not post a few blogs to warn my OECTA readers about this years Ontario Provincial election on Oct 6. I realize election talk can grow tedious, especially half way through an election. There hasn't been a real lot of reader interest even here. Still let me toss you some tasty inside tidbits from the teacher election grapevine, as well as a few of my own personal projections to maybe help spice things up a bit.

The fear inside Tim Hudak's Conservative "tax fighter" election war room is that he is currently dead in the water at the half way mark to election day. He'd planned to copy Rob Ford's Toronto Mayorial campaign. Now the wheels are falling off that election vehicle as the service cut implications of Ford's tax cuts have suddenly become so readily apparent here in Toronto. Figure out the math. Without big Toronto gains Hudak's unlikely to get enough seats to win.

Ford always was and still is a political wild card, especially now for Tim Hudak's provincial Conservatives. Still who'd have guessed he'd decide on his own to be so gung-ho in trying to implement his big service cuts at the worst possible time for his buddy Tim? Not the Conservatives. You know the saying, "You can fool some of the people some of the time..."  Well the infamous Ford Nation Uprising during this fall's provincial election is suddenly nowhere to be seen as Rob tanks at the polls. The reality factor has settled in as voters face huge service cuts across the city to pay for Ford's promised tax cuts in last fall's municipal election.

So what's next for Tim??? My bet? He'll fall back on the tired old "Broken Promises" chant from yesteryear. Atta boy Timmy, can you light our wicks with that one again?!?! Or will you just keep beating away with the same losing "tax fighter" swagger using Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty as your own personal punching bag? Will you find out that the negative attack ad swing has finally run out of steam in election weary Ontario as a sure vote winner? Gone the way of the Dodo bird and the naivity of the Ford Nation? Zzzzz. Yawn.

One can only hope! Of course a lot can still happen. There's two weeks between now and election day October 6th. That can be a few life times in politics. So if you are getting involved in our OECTA "Who Speaks For Children?" election effort, now is the time to step up the effort. Please don't figure it's game over, that we've spoken out for our students, saved our profession and schools and then head back home! The battle isn't over!

True Hudak's large lead in the polls has been reduced to a dead heat. Unless he can come up with a strong rescue "Plan B" this late in the election game, the punsters pretty well agree that if you translate the current  polls into a seat count, we will be looking at a minority Liberal win.

Andrea Horwath's NDP has no doubt taken a bounce in the polls amongst voters who don't know the difference between the Federal and the Provincial NDP but Jack Layton she isn't. Not yet anyway. I've met her on a few occasions and would bet in the long term she could be a real firecracker. For now Andrea is still a rookie and hasn't really caught fire. That's pretty much to be expected. As with Hudak, she hasn't had to take her party campaign out on the election road trail as party leader until now. She's more of a political party leader rookie in finding her feet than Tim who at least sat in Premier Harris' cabinet.

But let's say she creates a few Liberal and NDP vote splits. Or maybe she even wins a few more NDP seats from the Liberals. Either way the NDP could still allow the Conservatives to come down the middle either flipping more Liberal ridings in their favour, or reducing the overall Liberal seat counts in their favour at Queen's Park when the legislature resumes. It is for this reason that OECTA is not recommending it's members vote against any sitting Liberal or NDP incumbents, even if their Liberal or NDP opponents are also education friendly candidates.

Unfortunately for the NDP their election platform is not on the front political burner yet beyond their own hardcore party ranks. At best, in a minority Liberal scenario with a Conservative opposition, the NDP could still see themselves yielding a lot more influence, and getting a lot more much needed media attention. It could be fun to see Andrea hold Dalton's feet to the fire when he leans a little too right of centre for their tastes. Then again don't expect him to be around past two more years anyway.

It's no secret Dalton McGuinty has promised wife Terry that ten years as premier will be it. She's been pretty good about all this, living and teaching in Toronto for the past eight years, but enough is enough and it's about time for the loving twosome to move on. Another election win let's him wrap up business, resign on top, and allow for a leadership race, party renewal and a new face for the party. Possibly a win win win situation for everyone but the Conservatives and the NDP if you will. Could give the tired old Libs a lot more sizzle!

McGuinty's personal talk ads about health and education have helped offset his tendency to seem kind of distant and forced. I remember working with a Liberal focus group some time ago when Dalton had to enter an informal setting for a meet and greet, to make small talk, drink beer and connect. He was like the proverbial deer in front of your car headlights, frozen stiff. Back before his 2003 election win he was really wobbly, like a tin soldier wound up but tight and sent marching into a room. He's come a long way in the public relations department. Though still low key as an election road warrior he can project a competent if not spectacular managerial image and the province is doing well in the current economic crisis. Unless he is thrown off his game between now and election day Dalton might even be able to just keep it bland and score a majority, albeit a reduced one, by just staying the course. Like Bill Davis', or maybe more so like with Steven Harper 's cakewalk as of late.

So far this election has been a real snoozefest. Few would argue that. Conservative voters are known to invariably vote conservative or not vote at all. Hudak's tax fighter stance will appeal to his core supporters but not otherwise pick up much momentum or a whole lot more votes with Ford run amok. Now he's very vulnerable to being exposed on the ominous service cuts downside of tax cuts by both the Liberals and the NDP. Unless the provincial NDP can keep rekindling and move beyond Jack Layton's Federal NDP glow, they look like a possible spoiler at best by stripping away a few more Liberal seats.

Depending on their success at that I'd guess at a minority or majority Liberal government depending how many voters either party can actually get out to vote on election day. Truth be told that's what usually wins or loses an election. Without much voter interest both parties have a big job to do. I'd be cautious and bet my money on a Liberal minority but unless Andrea or Tim can come up with a quick game changer Dalton could now possibly pull a majority win hat trick come Oct 6th through sheer default. The next two weeks will certainly either have to suddenly become real exciting or a total sleep walk to provincial election day. Let's try to stay politically awake and active to see what happens next!

More election blogs below, and a lot of other stuff, especially in the July and August archives...