A Dead Heat: Who Will Win + How?

[Post-script: Of course McGuinty will say no coalition, to hint otherwise would say he lacks confidence that he can win. Also, if swing voters feel safe they might stay with the NDP on election day rather than seek safety under the Liberal Tent. The NDP is guarded about the possibility of a coalition too. Under either a Liberal or a Conservative government they hold the balance of power, coalition or not, so there's no need to show their cards just yet.]

Election day is Thursday Oct. 6 of this week. Both the Liberal and Conservatives seem tied in a dead heat, if we are to believe the polls. Neither the Federal or the Toronto Municipal election polling numbers have turned out to be very accurate over the last year or so. In short, election day may just come down to a crap shoot, a roll of the dice as to who will win, and what happens afterward. It's still any one's guess. Let's examine this further.


Vote percentages don't necessarily match the actual seat numbers that will result for each party at Queens Park. For some interesting projections on this see http://electionalmanac.com/ Their seat projections are based upon polls from over a week ago, and therefore don't take into account the televised leaders debate. Then again the recent polls don't seem to shown any decisive win though Andrea Horwath's personal popularity may continue to grow. McGuinty and Hudak remain in a dead heat with perhaps a small bump in the viewer polls resulting from McGuinty's better performance in the debate. Otherwise the polling numbers don't seem to have changed much. The election race remains a dead heat with the Liberals and Conservatives both polling around the 35% mark. According to Election Almanac's projections we are looking at at a very slim Liberal majority! How can this be? Don't forget Ontario's population isn't spread evenly across the province, so the polling numbers won't evenly express true voter intent in every riding.


Another issue with the polling numbers is the actual demographics of the support for each of the three main parties. The NDP under Andrea Howarth has broken through the party's 20% glass roof and by some estimates is continuing to grow. In the personal sense she has done best this election in projecting an alternative to the "men in suits" running for the other parties. She comes across as warm and personable and has kept the Jack Layton glow shining. Party and platform wise, the NDP hasn't done as well though in inspiring mainstream confidence that they are ready to govern. Most importantly of all the NDP'ers voter base is largely young adults who are often not prone to actually show up to vote.


The Conservatives at 35% are pretty much at or just a little above the number of party faithful. If they don't like the leader or policies they won't switch votes, they just won't vote at all. The Toronto Sun, the most venomous of their supporters, while still declaring Hudak the winner of the debate didn't try to portray his win as a slam dunk. Quite rare. Apparantly Hudak wasn't Conservative enough in stating what cuts would be made. Had he done some more union bashing this might have been more reassuring to them. He's not quite enough like Mike Harris. He didn't list a lot of far right promises openly and clearly enough for the liking of a large enough percentage of his core group I suspect. Then again, smelling possible victory Conservative voters might just figure damn the torpedoes and come out to vote for him anyways, something they were not prepared to do under Ernie Eves and even less so with John Tory as party leader.


Where does this leave the Liberals? Their core support is amongst the aging baby-boomers, a substantial slice of the demograph, and perhaps even more importantly the group that is most likely to come out to vote. Quite frankly anyone with half a brain knows Ontario is doing relatively well right now in the current economic crisis. It is the international situation which is most likely to determine how jobs, finances and the economy goes in Ontario. Any other bromide is snake oil at best. Dalton McGuinty has stressed his good managerial skills, and can come across as believable on this count if still not being all that warm and reassuring. But in uncertain times, the simple cures promised by the Conservatives or even the NDP might seem pretty easy to swallow by the populace at large. Do they believe that a quick fix with lower taxes will work or do they prefer someone who will be steady and able to manage? If one believes it is all Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals fault that we are in uncertain economic times that voter might still gamble on swallowing the Tory snake oil come voting day. The Conservatives and Liberal messaging has pretty much come down to these two themes. Dalton the lying tax man or Dalton as the good, steady manager.


Another cause of great concern for the Liberals is a split in votes between them and the increasingly popular NDP. The Conservative have and still could quite likely win some more ridings first pass the post even though the total popular vote for their party is less than the combined vote of the other two. Often, we have seen a last minute switch of voters crossing back to the Liberals fearing a Conservative win. But Andrea Horwath has done well. Sensing a balance of power might now exist in a new post Bob Rae NDP her support could be tempted to stay with the leftist party rather than jumping ship to the Liberals come election day.

Much of the party canvasing this year focused on primarily finding out the residents political preference, rather than in trying to win over new support. These lists will prove invaluable come election day in getting out the vote. Each party will need a huge army of folk walking door to door, making phone calls and driving people to the voting stations. I still maintain that whoever gets the most of their support out wins be they Liberal or Conservative. Either way if it could be a minority government for either side with the NDP able to start calling a lot of the shots, or even forming a coalition, though that would be an issue I'd rather address later in another blog. Of course a lot can still happen between now and election day.


OECTA continues to encourage it's strategic voting option. Support your Liberal or NDP incumbent, they are both education friendly. As a teacher you won't want to see the Tory's coming down the middle in a split vote, they are not. If you have to hold your nose then so be it. If you have to help your own party do so in another riding where they are the incumbent. You really won't like a Conservative triad at the Federal, Municipal and Provincial level hatcheting away at our social services safety net for the next four years with their ill conceived economic remedy of cut, cut, cut!

So then, let me give you my top guesses how the election will turn out, in descending order:

1] A slim Liberal majority
2] A Conservative minority
3] A Liberal/ NDP Coalition
4] The polling is way off again and we get a Conservative majority

PS: For another real interesting and often quite accurate election result website go to http://electionprediction.org/

Jack's Last Street Party!

Whew! Janet and I flew out of New York City just as the hurricane evacuation started. We had seats all ready booked, and aside from a few delays and waiting awhile in a long line up of jets out on the tarmac, we were home by Friday midnight only a few hours late! That was good luck!

It was a whirlwind week. I've been far too busy living it to write much. If you've been keeping track, I posted my daily itineraries in the News Flash box, and posted the photos in my slide show. There will be more to follow. It was quite a blast! An earthquake, a hurricane warning, and sunset's spent at the 9/11 site, watching everyone busy as bees fixing it up for next month's tenth anniversary. Then there was our art deco hotel and diner, the New Yorker, the Tic Toc and and and......

Despite being pretty tired Janet and I were up and out early this morning making our way downtown Toronto for Jack Layton's state funeral at Roy Thompson Hall. Actually we were at the unofficial peoples street party outside the hall, where it was quite an affair of a different kind. No tickets. No reservations either. Sometimes these are the best parties of all!

As the official guests arrived Janet and I were lined up front against the fence in the entrance way watching the ceremonies unfold. It was excellent to see so many guests of all political stripes. Jack's NDP's caucus arrived, many of them francophone. They came over to greet us all, a very nice touch. We watched Conservative Prime Minster Harper, looking very relaxed and at ease, greeting the Governor General, and other dignitaries. It was a very decent gesture to offer Jack the honour of a state funeral. He can now afford to be nice I suppose with his majority Conservative government safely esconed in Ottawa for the next four years and the leader of the opposition laid out in a casket. But this was no time for acrimony.

I counted two former Liberal Prime Minsters; Paul Martin and Jean Chretien. Provincial Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty arrived by foot on his own, without an escort, as did Conservative Opposition Leader Tim Hudak, and provincial NDP Party leader Andrea Horwath. Ed Broadbent walked by too! We are still very small scale local and provincial here in Canada. It shows. This was a moment of reconciliation without the usual political rancor. True, Mayor Ford arrived with his entourage. He might need protection. I don't know. Ford's a pretty strange cookie. He makes jokes about ridding the city of "pinkos" and can be a pretty nasty piece of work, just ask the city workers and folks in subsidized housing. There were undercover cops spread throughout the crowd. I spotted quite a few. Still it was just a nice summer day, and overall a very laid back affair.

Jack Layton's hearse arrived escorted by bagpipers and a marching police brigade. It was a real tear jerker! Jack's wife NDP MP Olivia Chow lead the family on the route from city hall by foot. She looked very graceful, in a simple black dress, obviously quite sad but with head held high. Strident. Sort of like a Jacqueline Kennedy of the Canadian left in her darkest hour before the eyes of our nation. The crowd called out "We love you Olivia." She seemed to look over at us briefly and cock an ear but otherwise kept her good poise. She would receive many such cheers whenever she was seen outside in person or on the big screen throughout the day.

After the official motorcade had arrived there was an unofficial street marching band joined by hundreds if not thousands of cyclists, citizens and friends. Onlookers joined in. Labour flags waved in the breeze. Dancers in top hats and black suits with big red hearts pinned to their chest walked about on stilts miming our sense of despair and grief with the sweeping motions of their hands and their sad facial expressions. Very moving! At the head of the march were a crying husband and wife clown team. Every hard core lefty from Toronto, and perhaps even across the province must've been out in force marching down King Street to Roy Thompson Hall to say good bye to Jack. 

An exaggeration? Perhaps, but it sure felt like it. It was informal and very Canadian; a big outside party for Jack. Lots of folk who just respected him, even if they disagreed with his politics mingled amongst an inclusive crowd of every political stripe and orientation. The gathering had a certain sense of decency which has been lacking for far too long in Canadian politics. It was a moment of unity. Everything just seemed to stop for an afternoon as everyone came together to say good bye to Jack. In the park out front of the hall we joined in a heart rendering version of Oh Canada. Then we watched the funeral on the huge big screen t.v., a shared experience of laughter and tears, and lots and lots of spontaneous outbursts of cheers for Jack and Olivia.

Prime Minister Harper looked very awkward on the outdoor screen when everybody rose for a standing ovation. Former Federal NDP Leader Steven Lewis' eloquent eulogy urged us all to follow Jack's example and fight for "social democracy". Of course Harper had to get up and clap too, Mr. Conservative or not. The crowd outside roared with laughter. It was too funny. The expression on his face was to die for. Even if it was just for now, he was letting the Canadian left have it's day in the sun, no doubt before the long political winter ahead.

After the funeral, Jack's motorcade and hearse sped off. Olivia got another standing ovation or two outside. Then the real fun began, for me anyway. It was meet and greet time! Janet and I wiggled behind the media stands to watch. A spry Jean Chretien leapt over the barriers, despite his considerable age, to meet with the press for the first time in ages. The former Prime Minister and Trudeaucrat was quite laid back and good humoured, a little odd at first perhaps, because we know he could be a real political scrapper. I called out from behind the cameras for him to please come over and speak to the people and he did, shaking hands and engaging in light banter with the crowd that gathered all around the stage. I decided to go for it and got up there with him, shook his hand and asked for a photo. He good naturedly agreed. I told him he was still badly needed in Ottawa, and he joked that he had been there for forty years, and that was enough. Still, I doubt Harper would be Prime Minster if Jean Chretien were still around today! Or maybe four years from now if Jack was still around. Now, we will just have to wait to see what happens for a bit.

All the police barriers soon came down and the crowds began to mingle with the dignitaries. It was very relaxed and informal. I wished Provincial NDP leader Andrea Horwath good luck in the upcoming election, and got a photo with her. I gave the Federal interim NDP leader best wishes and got a photo too. Then there was former Liberal Party leaders Stephan Dion and Michael Ignatieff. More photos again. I made my way over to greet my TSU political archnemisis [or maybe I am his, I'm not sure] Don Schmidt. I saw Mayorial candidate Andrew Gambione and his girlfriend and told him he shouldn't have dropped out of the race. He seemed ambivalent. I asked if we had seen the last of him and he said no. There was another photo. Same with City Councillor Adam Vaughan. I reminded him that we desperately need him now at city hall and urged him to kick Mayor Rob Ford's butt. He laughed and nodded. Only in Canada eh?

You may or may not know about my photo collection. Since I have been doing union political advisory work for over ten years now I often meet quite a few different public figures, usually in the political backrooms, or lobbying them at public events. Then there was the teacher protest strike in the late nineties when I ended up a lot in the news pictures even if I wasn't identified, usually not. Still we yakked a lot and Janet suggested I ask them for a photo. It's become sort of a game to see how many I can get, perhaps more so a political inside joke now; they can't very well be famous if they haven't had their photo with me. Crazy I know but a lot of fun and my photo album has become quite infamous. I've got them from all the political parties, even the ones I can't stand until it's gotten to the point where I'm unsure whether to call it a book of fame or shame. There's some pretty good stories I could tell too, but that will have to wait. Suffice to say I added quite a few more photos to my collection today, and will be sharing them on this blogsite, something I haven't been ever been able to do before. Ha ha.

Well, I'm off to Buffalo New York for a baseball game tomorrow with a group of my TSU union executive buddies, past and present, so I think I will end my blog here for now. Please stay tuned. I've still got some pretty good New York Diary stuff you might like, and of course this week we get the new union executive up and running, more on that later too.